The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | Miaka 50 iliyopita, wakati ambapo Neil Armstrong alipowacha alama ya kanyago lake huko mwezini, tukio hilo liliwatia hofu, kuwapa fahari na likawa kama muujiza mkubwa ulimwenguni kote. Gazeti hili lilidadisi kwamba “kutoka leo, mtu anaweza kutembea mahali popote anapotaka duniani iwapo tu fikra zake zinamtuma kufanya hivyo pamoja na ubunifu wake wa kimaarifa…katika sayari, tena haraka iwezekanavyo,mtu sasa ameamua kutembea.” Lakini hapana. Kitendo cha kufika mwezini hakikuwa cha kawaida, lengo lililofikiwa halikuwa ndio matarajio yenyewe bali lilikuwa kama nyenzo tu ya kuudhihirishia ulimwengu kuhusu uwezo wa kipekee wa Marekani. Pindi tu hoja hiyo ilipotolewa, haikuhitaji kuundwa upya. Ilikuwa ni watu 571 pekee ambao walikuwa wamewahi kutembelea sayari; na kutokea 1972 hapakuwa na mtu aliyekuwa ameenda mbali katika anga za juu kuliko Des Moines kutoka Chicago. Miaka 50 ijayo itakuwa tofauti sana. Kushuka kwa bei, teknolojia mpya, maazimio ya wachina na Wahindi, pamoja na kizazi kipya cha wajasiriamali kinachoahidi kipindi cha mabadiliko ya anga. Bila shaka itahusisha utalii kwa matajiri na mitandao ya mawasiliano bora kwa watu wote; baada ya muda inaweza kuhusisha uchimbaji wa madini na uchukuzi wa watu wengi. Anga itakuwa kama sehemu ya Ardhi – ukumbi wa mashirika na watu binafsi, sio tu Serikali. Lakini ili kutimizwa kwa ahadi hii, ulimwengu unahitaji kuunda mifumo ya kisheria ili kusimamia anga – katika muda wa kawaida na, itakapotokea, katika vita. Kwa hivyo, maendeleo ya angani yamezingatia kushughulikia matukio yaliyo ardhini – hususan mawasiliano ya wambiyo kwa ajili ya kutangaza pamoja na urambazaji. Hivyo basi, mambo mawili yanabadilika hapa. Kwanza, siasa za kikanda zinachukua matao ya juu na kuwasababishia wanadamu madhila kwenye mzunguko wa ardhi. Uchina ina mipango ya kuwapeleka watu mwezini kufikia 2035. Mamlaka ya usimamizi wa Rais Donald Trump wanawataka Wamarekani kurudi mwezini kufikia 2024. Kushuka kwa bei kunasababisha kuwepo kwa mbwembwe hizi na kuifanya gharama kuwa nafuu zaidi ukilinganisha na hapo awali. Apollo iligharimu mamia ya mabilioni ya madola (katika pesa za sasa). Hivi sasa, makumi ya mabilioni ni gharama ya tikiti. […] Ni kosa kupigia debe shughuli za angani kama zinavyopendwa kwenye Mbuga za Magharibi, eneo la kale ambapo walimwengu wanaweza kutupilia mbali mambo yao na kuvumbua hatima yake. Ili anga itimize ahadi yake, panahitajika usimamizi bora. Katika nyakati ambazo dunia haiwezi kukubaliana kuhusu masharti ya biashara ya chuma ya kimaeneo pamoja na maharage ya Soya yanayoweza kuonekana kama ombi kubwa. Lakini vinginevyo, uwezekano wa vitu vyote vilivyoko nje ya ardhi vitalazimika kungojea miaka mingine 50 ili kutimizwa. Baya zaidi ni kuwa anga inaweza kuzidisha matatizo ya Ardhi. |