The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | Wakati ambapo, takriban miaka hamsini iliyopita, Neil Armstrong aliweza kupaa hadi anga za mwezi ni wakati uliowaduwaza wengi, ukawapa wengi kujivunia na hata mshangao ulimwenguni kote. Kwenye jarida hili, ilitabiriwa kwamba, toka siku hii, binadamu ana uwezo wa kwenda popote pale ulimwengu mzima fikra zake zitamruhusu na pia ufahamu wake ufikapo...kwa sayari zote, na kwa hakika binadamu yupo tayari kwenda. Lakini sivyo. Kufika kwa mwezi kuliashiria muamko mpya, sio tu kuonyesha uwezo wa kufika mahali pale bali pia kama jinsi ya Marekani kuonyesha ukakamavu wake duniani.. Kwa kweli marekani ilifaulu kudhihirisha ukakamvu wake. Ni watu mia tano sabini na moja pekee ndio wameweza kupaa hadi kwa mwezi kwa kipindi hiki; Na tangu mwaka wa 1972, hakuna aliyeweza kuenda zaidi ya Armstrong kwa umbali uliozidi des Moines ilipo na Chicago. Miaka hamsini ijayo itakuwa todfauti sana. Gharama za chini, teknolojia mpya, matamanio ya uchina na India na pia kizazi kipya cha wajasiriamali; Yote haya yataashiria mwamko mpya kuendeleza juhudi za safari za anga. Pasi na kujumuisha utalii kwa matajiri na kuimarisha mitandao ya mawasiliano kwa wote; mwishowe kuna uwezekano wa kutumia safari hizi kuchimba madini na hata usafiri wa uma. Anga zitakuwa tu kama sehemu ya ardhi-uwanja wa mashirika na pia watu binafsi, na sio tu ya serikali. Na, kwa haya yote kutimizwa, kuna umuhimu wa kuunda mfumo wa sheria zitakazo ongoza maswala ya safari za anga, wakati wa amani na wakati wa vita kama ipasavyo. Teknolojia ya safari za anga hadi sasa imeangazia shughuli za hapa hapa duniani haswa mawasiliano ya satelaiti kwa minajili ya utangazaji na pia urambazaji. Cha msingi, mambo mawili yanabadilika. Kwanza, siasa, haswa mahusiano ya kimataifa zinaleta msukumo kwa mataifa kwa minajili ya kutaka kutuma binadamu zaidi ya safari za ndege. Uchina inapania kutua watu kwenye mwezi ifikapo mwaka wa 2035. Serikali ya marekani chini yake Rais Donald Trump inatarajia kutua ifikapo mwaka wa 2024. Kadri gharama zinavyopunguka ndivyo shughuli hii inavyozidi kuwa nafuu ikilinganishwa na hapo awali. Safari ya kwanza ya Apollo iligharimu mamia ya bilioni dola (pesa za leo). Kwa sasa, tiketi ya mtu mmoja inagharimu chini ya bilioni mia moja. Ni kosa kukabili suala hili bila kuzingatia maadili na sheria, Utaratibu wa kisheria unatakikana kama mojawazo ya kanuni za kuwezesha safari za anga. Hata hivyo, Itakuwa ni vigumu sana kufanya hivi tukizingatia kwamba mataifa yameshindwa kuzingatia sheria zilizoko katika uuzaji wa vitu vigdogo vidogo kama chuma na hata soya. Ilhali, bila technolojia hii, yote binadamu alikusudia katika safari za anga itangoja miaka zingine hamsini kutimizwa. Anga huenda ikawa hata chanzo cha shida zaidi duniani. |