The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | Trenutak kada je Nil Armstrong pre 50 godina stupio na površinu Meseca pobudio je strahopoštovanje, ponos i divljenje širom sveta. Ove novine su zaključile da: „čovek od tog dana pa nadalje može u vasioni da ode gde god njegov um odluči i njegova domišljatost naumi… do planeta čovek, sada je izvesno, stiže u najskorije vreme.“ Ali ne. Sletanje na Mesec bilo je izuzetak, cilj koji nije postignut radi samog cilja, već kao sredstvo pokazivanja američkih izuzetnih sposobnosti. Ta ideja, jednom promovisana, nije zahtevala izmene. Samo je 571 čovek bio u orbiti; a od 1972. niko se nije odvažio da ode mnogo dalje u svemir nego što je De Mojn udaljen od Čikaga. Sledećih 50 godina izgledaće mnogo drugačije. Smanjenje troškova, nove tehnologije, ambicije Kineza i Indijaca i nova generacija preduzimača obećavaju odvažnu eru razvoja svemira. To će gotovo sigurno uključivati turizam za bogate i bolje komunikacione mreže za sve; na duže staze moglo bi uključivati eksploataciju minerala i čak masovni prevoz. Svemir će sve više postajati kao produžetak Zemlje - arena za firme i fizička lica, ne samo za vlade. Ali kako bi se ovo obećanje ispunilo, svet treba da stvori sistem zakona za upravljanje nebesima – kako u miru tako i u ratu, ukoliko bi došlo do toga. Razvoj svemira do sada je bio fokusiran na olakšavanje aktivnosti ispod – većinom satelitske komunikacije za emitovanje i navigaciju. Sada se dve stvari menjaju. Prvo, geopolitika podstiče novi pritisak da se ljudi šalju izvan plićaka niske Zemljine orbite. Kina planira sletanje ljudi na Mesec do 2035. Administracija predsednika Donalda Trampa želi da se Amerikanci tamo vrate do 2024. Pad troškova čini ovo razmetanje pristupačnijim nego ranije. Apolo je koštao stotine milijardi dolara (u današnjem novcu). Sada su desetine milijardi cena karte. (…) Greška je promovisati svemir kao romantizovan Divlji zapad, anarhičnu granicu na kojoj čovečanstvo može odbaciti svoje okove i ponovo uzeti sudbinu u svoje ruke. Kako bi svemir ispunio svoje obećanje, potrebna je uprava. U vreme kada se svet ne može složiti o pravilima kopnene trgovine čeličnim šipkama i sojom, to može izgledati kao veliki zalogaj. Ali bez toga potencijal svega što leži izvan Zemlje u najboljem slučaju čekaće još 50 godina da se ostvari. U najgorem slučaju svemir bi mogao uvećati Zemljine probleme. |