The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
[ … ]
It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 50年前,当尼尔·阿姆斯特朗 (Neil Armstrong)踏上月球表面的那一刻,全世界便为之震惊、骄傲和惊叹。报道称“从今天起,神秘的外太空不再成为人类智慧与科技发展的极限,人类应尽早踏上那些我们势必登陆的星球,宇宙的浩瀚无垠不能阻挡人类的脚步。”然而现实并非如此,登月只是个例外,美国志在通过登月彰显自己泱泱大国的风采与实力,而登月本身,与其说目的不如说只是手段罢了。美国一旦让世人见证了自己的能力,那么登陆其它星球便再无意义可言。迄今为止,仅有571人进入过太空,1972年至今,人类探索太空的距离还不如从芝加哥(Chicago)到得梅因(Des Moines)那么远。 此一时,彼一时,接下来50年的局面将截然不同。成本降低、新兴技术、中国和印度的勃勃雄心、以及新一代的企业家,都预示着一个全新太空发展时代的到来并非异想天开。几乎可以肯定的是,这样的时代为我们提供了更好的通讯网络,为富人带去了到太空“旅游”的机会。而从长远角度来看,这也许还会影响矿产开发,甚至是公共交通运输。太空将更像是地球延伸的一片竞技舞台,不再为政府所专有,个人和企业也能从中分一勺羹。然而要达到这一理想境地,世界需要建立一套管理太空的法律体系,这不仅仅是对于和平时期而言,也为可能发生的战争时期做准备。 一直以来,像卫星通讯系统主要服务于广播和导航,太空发展的重点还仅仅局限于如何使地球上的生活更加便捷。但是现在局面并非一成不变,首先,地缘政治家正在蓄力,准备跨越近地轨道的浅滩,将人类送到宇宙更深处。中国计划在2035年之前完成人类登月,以总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)为首的美国政府也计划2024年前再次在月球表面留下美国人的足迹。现如今,想通过登月来夸耀国家资本要花费的代价比50年前便宜多了。以当今货币来计算,阿波罗计划耗资数千亿美元,而今天,通往月球的票价仅为50年前的十分之一。 [...] 将外太空宣传成浪漫的“狂野西部”就大错特错了,这里不是“天高皇帝远”的地方,不是人类能够摆脱法律束缚肆意妄为的疆土,人类不能在太空重蹈命运的覆辙。因此,人类若想在宇宙中完成那些美好的愿景,让太空探索有法可依便尤为必要。然而,当各国还在地球上为钢筋和大豆的交易规则打得不可开交时,谈太空治理问题实在是为时尚早,但没有法治,何谈发展,那些太空梦往好了说再等50年才能圆梦,往坏了说就是在地球现有问题上又加上了一笔。 |