The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | Moman lè, sa gentan gen 50 lane, Neil Armstrong te depoze pye l sou sifas Lalin nan te enspire admirasyon, fyète ak etònman toupatou nan mond lan. Jounal sa a te avanse agiman ke "lòm, apati jodi a menm, kapab ale kèlkeswa kote li vle nan linivè a pandan lespri l dispoze epi enjenyozite l ap kreye mwayen... pou planèt yo, pi bonè olye de pita, lòm vin gen fèm asirans kounye a pou l ale". Men non. Ateri sou Lalin nan pa t yon bagay ki te nòmal ditou, ki se yon objektif ke yo te rive atenn men pa kòm yon finalite pou kont li men kòm yon mwayen pou siyale ansanm kapasite estwòdinè peyi Etazini genyen yo. Yon fwa yo fin fòmile pwen sa a, yo pa bezwen refòmile l ankò. Se sèlman 571 moun ki te nan òbit la; epi depi lane 1972 poko janm gen yon moun ki te rive avantire lespas plis pase Des Moines ki se moun Chicago. 50 pwochen lane k ap vini yo pral totalman diferan. Pri k ap bese yo, nouvo teknoloji, anbisyon Chinwa ak Endyen, ansanm ak yon nouvo jenerasyon antreprenè ki pwomèt yon gwo epòk pou devlopman espasyal. Sa pral preske klèman enkli touris ansanm ak meyè rezo kominikasyon pou tout moun; ofiramezi sa ka enkli eksplwatasyon mineral ak menm transpò an mas. Lespas la pral vin plis tankou yon Ekstansyon pou Latè—yon teren pou antrepriz ansanm ak moun an patikilye, men pa sèlman gouvènman yo. Men pou nou rive akonpli pwomès sa a mond lan dwe kreye yon sistèm lwa pou gouvène syèl la—ni nan tan lapè ak, si sa ta rive, ni nan tan lagè. Jiskaprezan, devlopman lespas la te toujou konsantre sou fasilite aktvite isi ba a—sitou kominikasyon pa satelit pou radyofizyon ak navigasyon. Kounye a, gen de (2) bagay k ap evolye. Dabò, jeyopolitik la ap alimante yon nouvo pouse pou l voye imen odela bafon òbit terès ba a. Peyi Lachin gen plan pou l fè moun ateri sou Lalin disi 2035. Administrasyon Prezidan Donald Trump lan vle pou Ameriken yo retounen sou Lalin disi 2024. Pri k ap bese yo rann ekspozisyon sa a pi abòdab pase oparavan. Apollo te koute plizyè santèn milya dola (lè n konpare l ak lajan n ap itilize jodi a). Kounye a pri biyè a vo plizyè dizèn milya dola. [ … ] Sa se yon erè pou nou pwomote lespas kòm yon Fa Wès womantik, ki se yon fwontyè anachik kote limanite ka debarase l de tout chèn ki anprizone l yo epi pou l redekouvri desten l. Pou lespas la rive akonpli pwomès li fòk gen gouvènans. Nan yon epòk kote lemond pa ka antann li sou règleman pou komès terès ba ann asye ak pwa frans lan sa ka parèt kòm yon gwo demann. San sa a, potansyèl tout sa w jwenn odela Tè a pral de preferans tann yon lòt 50 lane ankò pou yo reyalize yo. Sa ki pi mal la, lespas la ka agrave pwoblèm Latè a ap konfwonte yo. |