The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 50年前,尼尔·阿姆斯特朗(Neil Armstrong)踏上月球表面的那一刻,世界人民为之肃然起敬、惊叹不已并引以为傲。本报当时评述说,“人类从今天开始,只要他心向往之并倾其所能,就可以去到宇宙的任何地方……在不久的将来,人肯定能登陆其他行星。” 但其实不然。登月是一种扭曲行为,目标的实现本身并不是最终目的,而只是展现美国非凡能力的一种手段。这个要传达的信息已传达,无需重来一次。至今只有571人进入了地球轨道;自1972年以来,人类超越月球表面的距离,不超过芝加哥和德梅因之间的英里数。 接下来的50年将大不一样。成本下降、新技术迭出、中国和印度的雄心以及新一代企业家的参与,预示着这将是太空发展奋发进取的时代。几乎可以肯定的是,会涉及服务富人的太空旅游业和服务大众的更好的通讯网络;从长远来看,将可能涉及矿物开采,甚至还有大规模运输。太空将变得越来越像地球的延伸——一个并不只有各国政府,还有企业和私人的竞技场。但是,要让这一前景成为现实,世界需要建立一个法律体系来管理太空——在和平时期如此,战争时期亦如此(假如战争发生)。 迄今为止,太空的发展都集中在促进太空界限以下活动的开展上,主要是广播和导航的卫星通讯。现在两样东西正在改变。第一,地缘政治正在刺激多国竞相发力,要把人类送到近地轨道以外的地方。中国计划在2035年之前登月。唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府想让美国人在2024年之前重回月球。成本下降让这种面子工程没以前那么昂贵。阿波罗号计划花费了数千亿美元(以今天的币值计算),而如今太空计划入场券的价格是几百亿。 […] 把太空宣传为浪漫化的蛮荒西部——一个人类可以摆脱束缚、重新发现自己命运的无政府主义前沿,这是错误的做法。要把太空的前景变为现实,治理是必不可少的。现如今国家间连钢筋和大豆的贸易规则都不能达成共识,这看起来或许是个难以实现的要求。但是如果没有治理,地球以外所有事物的潜力,往好里说,还要再等50年才能发挥。往坏里说,太空可能会加剧地球的问题。 |