The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 50年前,尼尔·阿姆斯特朗踏上月球表面的那一刻,激起了世界各地的人们的敬畏、骄傲和惊叹。该报纸称:“人类,从这一天开始,可以到达其心之所向,且其聪明才智能够策划的宇宙中的任何地方……到达各行星,早而非晚,现在人类肯定能成行。”但事实并非如此。登月是一个异常行动,一个已实现的目标,本身不代表结束,但这是表明美国的非凡能力的一种手段。这个立场,表明之后,便不需要再次表明。只有571人已上过太空轨道;自从1972年以来,人们冒险探索太空的距离,不超过得梅因到芝加哥的距离。 未来的50年将会截然不同。成本缩减,新技术,中国和印度的宏图大计,以及新一代的企业家们,预示着太空发展的大胆探索的时代。几乎可以肯定,这将包括富人的旅游业,以及面向所有人的更好的通讯网络;长期来说,这还可能包括矿产开发和公共运输。太空将变得更像地球的延展——面向企业和私人的舞台,而不仅是政府。不过,为了实现这个目标,全球需要制定一个法律体系,管治太空——适用于和平时期,同时,以防万一,亦适用于战争时期。 迄今为止的太空发展一直专注于为太空之下的活动提供便利——主要是用于广播和导航的卫星通讯。现在,两种因素正在发生变化。第一,地缘政治为这样的一种努力推波助澜,即把人类送往地球低层轨道的浅层之外的地方。中国计划在2035年将人送上月球。总统唐纳德·特朗普的政府希望在2024年把美国人再次送到那儿。成本降低,使这种炫耀比以前更加便宜。阿波罗计划耗费数千亿美元(以今天的价值计)。现在,入场费是数百亿美元。 […] 这是一个错误,将太空标榜为浪漫的未开发的西部,一个无政府状态的边远地区,人类可以在这里抛开束缚,重新发现命运。要实现太空的目标,需要管治。此际,当世界各国无法就地球上的钢筋和大豆贸易的规则达成共识,这可能看似一个艰巨的要求。然而,没有这种管治,人们至少要再等50年,才能开发地球之外的所有潜能。最糟糕的情况下,太空可能为地球增加更多问题。 |