The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | U trenutku kada je pre 50 godina, Nil Armstrong posadio svoje stopalo na Mesečevu površinu inspirisao je divljenje, ponos i osećaj čuda širom sveta. Ove novine su tvrdile da “čovek, od ovog dana, može da ide bilo gde u univerzumu gde njegov um i genijalnost mogu zamisliti... do planeta, čovek će sigurno stići što skorije. ” Ali nije bilo tako. Sletanje na Mesec bilo odstupanje, cilj koji nije bio to sam za sebe već način da se pokažu izuzetne sposobnosti Amerike. Taj cilj jednom postignut, nije zahtevao ponavljanje. Samo 571 osoba je bila u Zemljinoj orbiti, i od 1972-e niko se nije usudio da ode dalje u Svemir, nego što je Demojn od Čikaga. Sledećih 50 godina izgledaće sasvim drugačije. Pad troškova, nove tehnologije, ambicije Kine i Indije, i nova generacije preduzimača obećavaju odvažnu epohu svemirskog razvoja. Ona će skoro sigurno uključivati svemirski turizam za bogate i bolje komunikacione mreže za sve. Na duge staze može da uključi eksploataciju mineralnih sirovina i čak masovni transport. Svemir će još više postati produžetak Zemlje — arena za firme i privatne pojedince, ne samo za vlade. Ali da bi se ovo obećanje ispunilo svet mora da donese zakonski sistem kojim će upravljati svemirom— i za vreme mira, i ako dođe do toga za vreme rata. Dosadašnji razvoj u svemiru bio je fokusiran nadole— većinom na satelitsku komunikaciju za emitovanje i navigaciju. Sada su se dve stvari promenile. Prvo, podstaknuti geopolitikom guramo da pošaljemo ljude van plićaka niske Zemljine orbite. Kina planira misiju sletanja na mesec do 2035. Administracija predsednika Donalda Trumpa želi da se Amerikanci vrate na Mesec do 2024. Pad troškova neophodnih čini ovaj poduhvat pristupačnijim nego pre. Apolo je koštao milijarde dolara (u današnim parama). Danas desetine milijardi košta karta. [ … ] Pogrešno je da se promoviše svemir kao romantična verzija Divljeg Zapada, anarhična granica gde čovečanstvo može da odbaci svoje okove i ponovo otkrije svoju sudbinu. Da bi svemir ispunio svoje obećanje neohodno je postojanje vlade. U vremenu kada se svet ne može da se složi oko pravila za zemaljsku trgovinu čelikom i sojom to je možda preveliki zalogaj. Ali bez njega sve mogućnosti koje se nalaze van Zemlje će u najboljem slučaju čekati još 50 godina da se ispune. U najgorem slučaju kosmos može da pridonese problemima na Zemlji. |